Glaciers in the Himalayas to the North of India may melt away by end of this century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at the current rate. A new study says that the loss of the Himalayan glaciers will have a massive ecological impact, something scientists have been warning us about for ages, and even cause the sea level to rise.
Retreating ice can also cause lakes to be formed or to grow larger, with these water bodies merely being dammed by precarious debris from glaciers. Natural disasters like avalanches and earthquakes are capable of breaching these dams, leading to catastrophic floods and river flows 100 times more powerful than is observed in the Kosi basin today.
Glacier hydrologist Joseph Shea, says that global warming due to carbon emissions at the present rate can result in 79% to 99% loss of glacial cover by the year 2100. The Dudh Kosi basin in Nepal Himalaya boasts of several of the world’s highest mountain peaks including Mount Everest. Additionally, glaciers cover 400 square kilometers of this area.
As it stands, Nepal already suffers from scarce groundwater and unpredictable monsoons. If glacial loss caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not curbed, the problem will only get worse. It will have a deep impact on hydropower generation and farming. Glacial melt increases water flow, while retreat reduces the amount of water from the glaciers during warmer months.
To make the latest prediction, Shea and his associates compiled field observations and data from local weather stations to test a model of change in the past 50 years. By applying 8 temperature and precipitation scenarios to the corresponding historical data, an estimate was made of the time it could take for melting glaciers to almost completely disappear.
Shea’s latest study is available through The Cyrosphere journal belonging to the European Geosciences Union.